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Our model, uniquely designed to anticipate significant change in stock and bond markets, has minimized surprises to subscribers. The Institutional Advisors' model is based upon original research by Bob Hoye and essentially completed in late 1970s. Initially, the intention was to demonstrate that the boom in tangible assets was ending and would be followed by another great boom in financial assets. In order to stress the profound change, the controversial conclusion before the stock market exploded in 1982 was - "no matter how much the Fed prints, stock will outperform commodities. With Asia's reversal in fortune in July/97, the world clicked into deflation and significant developments in stocks, bonds and commodities since have been following the model. Although not perfect, conditions have tracked well enough to reduce surprises that attend remarkable financial volatility. Our research has been reliable in anticipating important developments in equities, metal prices, the treasury curve, and quality spreads. As well, the model includes one of the few forecasts on real interest rates (wich seem to generate more complaint than thorough research). |
