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IDC Portfolio Management offers forecasts of U.S interest rates, weekly, and selected foreign interest rates and currency forecasts monthly to institutional clients. IDC developed its forecasts using a monetarist framework. We have found that changes in holdings of U.S. Treasury securities by the Federal Reserve and foreign central banks is a strong leading indicator of interest rates over the entire yield curve. In addition to these fundamental monetary factors, we employ private survey data to refine the magnitude and direction of our forecasts. IDC began publishing its U.S.Interest Rate Forecast in the fall of 1993. Following the success of accurately predicting rates, in 1994 IDC's research team expanded the same methodology to forecast rates in Germany, Japan, UK, and Canada. After its success in forecasting foreign rates, IDC embarked on relative analysis of interest rate spreads between countries to forecast currencies. |
